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Good morning, and happy jobs Wednesday. We may have had to wait five extra days for January’s nonfarm payrolls report, but at least we’ve had the Winter Olympics to pass the time. Norway currently leads with six gold medals, while the U.S. trails in fifth place with two.
Stock futures are ticking higher this morning after the three major averages posted a mixed session.
Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:
1. Labor intensive
Now Hiring sign and QR code for application, Burlington Coat Factory store, Queens, New York.
Lindsey Nicholson | UCG | Universal Images Group | Getty Images
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release January’s nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30 am ET this morning, five days later than initially scheduled, thanks to the recent government shutdown. Economists are expecting the report to show meager growth, if any.
Here’s what to know:
- The Dow Jones consensus sees payrolls increasing by 55,000 in the month, marginally higher than December’s gain of 50,000. Other Wall Street forecasts are predicting even lower numbers.
- The data dump will also include the BLS’ final benchmark revisions for the 12 months before March 2025. Those revisions could end up erasing nearly all of the gains made in the period.
- This morning’s report comes on the heels of several other recent economic data points, which have pointed to a struggling labor market. December retail sales data released yesterday also showed consumer activity slowed significantly in the month.
- Even the White House is tempering expectations: National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told CNBC this week to “expect slightly smaller job numbers,” citing a decline in the labor force, thanks to the Trump administration’s immigration efforts, and rising productivity.
- Stock futures are higher heading into the report. The S&P 500 fell 0.33% yesterday, as financial stocks faced investor concerns around artificial intelligence’s threat to the sector.
- Follow live market updates here.
2. Built Ford tough?
Ford Motor Company CEO Jim Farley speaks at a Ford Pro Accelerate event on September 30, 2025 in Detroit, Michigan.
Bill Pugliano | Getty Images
Ford reported its worst quarterly earnings miss in four years yesterday, posting adjusted earnings per share of 13 cents for its fourth quarter — 32% below the 19 cents Wall Street expected. The automaker said roughly $900 million in unexpected tariff costs were to blame, as well as the impact of a fire at an aluminum plant that supplies Ford’s F-Series pickup trucks.
But Ford has its eyes on the road ahead. The company sees 2026 as a rebound year, forecasting higher adjusted EBIT, adjusted free cash flow and capital expenditures than last year. Ford’s traditional and fleet units are expected to make up for the $4 billion to $4.5 billion in losses from its electric vehicle unit this year.
3. Blocked shot
A researcher works in the lab at the Moderna Inc. headquarters in Cambridge, Massachusetts, US, on Tuesday, March 26, 2024.
Adam Glanzman | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Shares of Moderna are more than 10% lower before the bell this morning after the drugmaker announced yesterday that the Food and Drug Administration has refused to review its application for an experimental flu shot. As CNBC’s Annika Kim Constantino reports, the FDA’s move is the latest indicator of tightening vaccine regulation under the Trump administration.
Moderna said the agency’s refusal was inconsistent with previous guidance it got from the FDA, and that the agency did not cite any specific safety or efficacy issues with its vaccine. Instead, the FDA took issue with Moderna’s study design, despite having previously approved it.
4. Files fallout
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick sits to testify before the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies hearing to examine a review of broadband deployment funding at the Department of Commerce, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 10, 2026.
Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick yesterday admitted that he visited sex offender Jeffrey Epstein’s island in 2012, telling lawmakers in his testimony before the Senate Appropriations Committee that he and his family had lunch on the island during a family vacation.
The admission comes as Lutnick — who previously said he cut contact with Epstein after 2005 — faces calls to resign from both sides of the aisle after recently released files suggested a more extensive relationship with Epstein than was known. The Commerce chief on Tuesday insisted he “barely had anything to do” with Epstein, with whom he said he “did not have any relationship.”
The so-called Epstein files are also rippling through British politics. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing pressure to resign over his appointment of Peter Mandelson as U.S. ambassador, despite Mandelson’s connections to Epstein.
5. Taking counterfeits to court
Shopping carts outside a Walmart store in Pittsburg, California, US, on Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Estée Lauder is suing Walmart, claiming that the big-box retailer sold counterfeit beauty products on its online marketplace.
In a lawsuit filed Monday, the cosmetics company said it ordered products that used its brands’ trademarks from Walmart.com and determined them to be fake. The items were sold by third-party sellers, but Estée Lauder accused Walmart of facilitating those sales in what it called “despicable and harmful” conduct.
Two of the counterfeit products Estée Lauder bought and tested from Walmart.com were cited in CNBC’s September investigation into counterfeit beauty products and fraud on the site. It is unclear when Estée Lauder purchased and tested the items, and whether they’re the same counterfeits CNBC provided to the company.
The Daily Dividend
Kalshi had a big Super Bowl weekend. The prediction market’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, told CNBC that bets on Bad Bunny’s first song alone exceeded $100 million in volume. Here are Kalshi’s numbers from Sunday, according to Mansour:
- Trading volume: $1 billion+
- Year-over-year increase: 2,700%
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a minority investment.
— CNBC’s Jeff Cox, Michelle Fox, Sean Conlon, Sarah Min, Liz Napolitano, Michael Wayland, Annika Kim Constantino, Kevin Breuninger, Chloe Taylor, Sam Meredith, Gabrielle Fonrouge and Laya Neelakandan contributed to this report. Melodie Warner edited this edition.
