As the global population heads towards nearly 10 billion by 2050, current agricultural water management (AWM) systems can sustainably support food production for only about 3.4 billion people—less than half of today’s population of 8 billion. At the heart of the crisis lies not just water scarcity, but poor management according to a new report.
Water is used inefficiently, unevenly and often unsustainably, according to the report published by World Bank ahead of World Water Day 2026. For instance, while parts of Sub-Saharan Africa underuse available resources, regions such as South Asia are overexploiting them.
Both extremes are risky—undermining food production, degrading ecosystems and heightening vulnerability to climate shocks. Droughts and floods are already taking a heavy toll, destroying crops, disrupting livelihoods and increasing emergency spending.
As these shocks intensify, the need to both curb overuse in water-stressed regions and unlock underutilised potential in water-abundant areas becomes urgent. Meeting future food demand will require a fundamental shift in how agricultural water systems are designed and managed, the report noted.
Agriculture is no longer operating in a temporary water crisis but within a state of global water bankruptcy, the United Nations recently warned in its report on Global Water Bankruptcy.
The challenge we face is not simply to use more or less water but to use water more effectively, at the right time, at the right place, and for the right purpose.
“Past investments delivered real gains; however, conditions have changed rapidly, and today’s realities call for reliable water services that can adapt to change, perform over time, and are supported by capable institutions, clear rules, and better information,” said Guangzhe Chen, Vice President for Planet at the World Bank Group.
The right choices depend on how much water a country has, and the role trade plays in meeting its food needs, the report stated.
It also suggested a “new water-food nexus framework”.
The framework categorises countries based on two factors: their level of water stress (availability versus scarcity and their food trade position (whether they are net importers or exporters of calories).
The categories are:
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Water-secure food importer
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Water-secure food exporter
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Water-stressed food exporter
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Water-stressed food importer.
