The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said that maximum temperatures in April 2026 could be normal to below normal in many parts of the country, with rainfall expected to be more than normal at 112 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
It also said that most weather models are indicating the development of El Nino during the Indian southwest monsoon season post June.
The Met department, however, did not indicate whether El Nino would have an impact on the Indian monsoon, saying that clear details would be spelt out during its annual monsoon forecast in mid-April. “The Indian monsoon does not depend on one single factor but a multitude of events,” IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.
He said that models indicate that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is another factor that impacts the Indian monsoon, is expected to be positive in the second half of the season.
Meanwhile, if April turns out to be wetter and cooler than normal in north and central India, it could impact standing late-sown rabi crops.
Meanwhile, the Met department also said that some parts of east, central, and northwest India, along with the southeast peninsula, are likely to see more heatwave days than usual between April and June.
During these months, maximum temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal over many parts of the country, except most parts of east and northeast India and eastern parts of central India and adjoining peninsular regions, where above-normal maximum temperatures are expected.
“During the hot season (April–May–June), above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except some regions of Maharashtra and Telangana, where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely,” said the IMD.
The department also stated that in April, monthly maximum temperatures are likely to be normal to below normal over many parts of the country.
However, above-normal maximum temperatures are expected over many parts of east and northeast India and some parts of northwest India and southern peninsular India during the month.
Also, above-normal monthly minimum temperatures are most likely over most parts of India, except for some isolated pockets in the southern peninsula, where normal minimum temperatures are expected during April.
“Normal to above-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country except Northeast India. Below-normal rainfall is expected over many parts of north-eastern India,” the IMD said.
