A possible El Niño event later this year could create new pressure on global food prices, especially as supply chains already face strain from rising energy and fertilizer costs linked to the Iran war. Meteorologists say there is a growing chance that a particularly strong phase of the climate pattern — often referred to as a “super El Niño” — could develop between October and December.
El Niño happens when the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean rise higher than usual, impacting rainfall and temperatures in important farming areas. Strong El Niño events often disturb crop growth by bringing drought to some places and heavy rain to others. Experts warn that if these weather patterns worsen, the prices of essential goods like cocoa, rice, sugar, and vegetable oils might go up.
The risk comes at a time when global fertilizer supply remains uncertain due to disruptions affecting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. About one-third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer trade typically passes through this route, meaning any interruption can raise production costs for farmers. Higher energy prices also add pressure, since natural gas plays a major role in fertilizer manufacturing.
Experts say that changing climate patterns along with ongoing geopolitical conflicts might raise food insecurity in regions that are already vulnerable. Countries like India, Brazil, Argentina, and Australia could encounter various agricultural challenges depending on how the weather evolves.
Although predictions are still uncertain, experts point out that disruptions caused by climate are increasingly influencing global food prices. Governments and producers are monitoring weather and supply developments closely as they prepare for the months ahead.
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