The past three years have been the world’s . In 2025, Earth was than the long-term average, perilously close to breaching the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5°C.
This warming is fuelling Australia’s current . Other consequences are visible globally, from Iran’s to and in the United States to hitting southern Asia.
We know what to do to tackle the climate crisis: Replace fossil fuels with clean energy technologies such as solar, wind, electric vehicles and batteries. We are well on our way. Globally, the power produced by renewables last year.
Petrostates such as Saudi Arabia and the US have made trillions from oil and gas. Now they are fighting a to prolong fossil fuels. The US is pushing European nations to , for instance.
But most countries have seen the writing on the wall. In November, the COP31 climate talks in Turkey are expected to deliver a away from fossil fuels. Dozens of countries will meet in Colombia in April to . The road ahead is bumpy. But the end of fossil fuels may finally be coming into view.
No holding back clean energy
There’s no one trying harder to slow the clean energy transition than US president Donald Trump. During his bid to return to the White House, Trump for $1 billion (A$1.4 bn) in campaign finance, promising a windfall in return.
In 2025, he for fossil fuel producers, , gutted Biden-era and moved to , even some near completion. The US is now one of the world’s of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil.
But clean energy growth has proved . Despite Trump’s efforts, domestic solar generation is still expected to in the next two years while electricity output from fossil fuel plants falls.
Trump is betting fossil fuels are the key to future American power. He made no secret of the fact the US military raid on Venezuela earlier this month was aimed at . He has implored US oil companies to to revive the country’s battered oil infrastructure. The response was lukewarm. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods said Venezuela was “”.
Developing Venezuela’s oil reserves assumes there will be demand for decades to come. But the world now faces an , even as sales of electric vehicles in many countries. Last month, battery electric vehicles for the first time in Europe.
Electrostates rising
While the US doubles down on 20th century fossil fuels, China is betting on an electric 21st century. It is emerging as the first , dominating production and export of solar, wind, batteries and EVs. China is now the world’s biggest car exporter. Most new Chinese cars are , not oil.
China’s manufacturing might has driven down the price of batteries, the main cost of EVs. As EVs get cheaper, emerging economies are finding they can and move straight to solar panels and EVs — even if the national power grid is limited or unreliable.
Commodity price trends show for copper, silver and other metals needed for mass electrification. Worldwide, investment in clean energy technologies first overtook fossil fuel investment ten years ago. In 2025, clean investment was the investment in coal, oil and gas. Clean energy is where the world is headed, whether Trump likes it or not.
, and are rapidly making the shift to renewable power. Developing nations from to are taking up electric transport to slash the cost of importing fossil fuels.
A new roadmap away from fossil fuels
This week, the US from the Paris Agreement. But no other country has followed.
For decades, the COP talks have focused on “cutting emissions” without dealing directly with the use of coal, oil and gas. But at the 2023 talks, nearly 200 countries agreed to “”.
At last year’s COP30 talks, host nation Brazil proposed a roadmap to . More than 80 countries , including , but pushback from Saudi Arabia and Russia kept it out of the final outcomes.
In response, Brazil is working to develop a roadmap for . This — or something similar — may be at the next climate talks in November.
While COP31 will be held in Turkey, Australian climate minister Chris Bowen will have a key role as “” and will ahead of the summit.
Bowen plans to lobby petrostates to support a managed shift away from fossil fuels, drawing on Australia’s experience as a major exporter of facing its own transition. Korea – Australia’s third largest market for thermal coal — will retire its by 2040.
Government modelling suggests Australia’s coal and gas exports could plummet 50 per cent in value as global demand falls. Independent modelling suggests the decline for coal could if countries meet their climate targets. Policymakers must plan to manage this transition.
Coalitions of the willing?
Frustrated by slow progress, a coalition of nations is separately discussing how to phase out fossil fuels. The first conference in April in Colombia. Here, delegates will discuss how to wind down fossil fuels while protecting . Some nations a standalone treaty to manage the phase-out. Conference outcomes will also feed back into the UN climate talks.
Pacific island nations aim to be the world’s . Ahead of COP31, Australia and island nations to progress this.
Progress is happening
In an ideal world, nations would rapidly tackle the existential threat of climate change together. We don’t live in that world. But it may not matter.
The shift to clean electric options has its own momentum. The question is whether the shift away from coal, oil and gas will be orderly — or chaotic.