Russia appears to be gaining from the US military operation in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, as more shadow fleet tankers move under Moscow’s protection.
Data by Lloyd’s List, cited by CNBC, shows a growing number of tankers are reflagging to Russia to shield themselves from enforcement action, a shift that has accelerated following US seizures of vessels carrying sanctioned Venezuelan oil.
What’s happening?
According to CNBC, there has been a sharp rise in shadow fleet tankers switching to the Russian flag in the past month, with at least 17 vessels having done so in recent weeks.
Among the most recent is Bella 1, which was stopped by the US on December 20 while heading to Venezuela under a fake Guyana flag, renamed Marinera and reflagged to Russia on December 31. It later left the Caribbean and is now heading toward Russia.
Another sanctioned tanker, now called Hyperion, was reflagged to Russia days later after delivering Russian naphtha to Venezuela under a false flag and exiting without US interception.
Since June, more than 40 shadow fleet ships have been registered under the Russian flag. Experts suggest several other vessels leaving Venezuela are using fraudulent flags and may also move to the Russian registry.
Why it matters
Overall, over 12 per cent of the global tanker fleet now operates in the shadow fleet, which is increasingly shifting toward Russian and Iranian trades under Moscow’s oversight.
The shadow fleet will further help sanctioned nations like Russia export and import oil despite restrictions. Many ships switch flags while empty, indicating they are seeking Russian protection before their next cargo.
However, not all attempts are succeeding. The tanker Premier, reflagged from Gambia to Russia on December 22, remains stalled and empty off Venezuela, CNBC reported.
What the US said about Venezuelan oil
US President Donald Trump has said that American oil companies are ready to invest billions of dollars in Venezuela’s energy sector if President Nicolás Maduro is removed from power.
Trump said companies like Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and ExxonMobil could recover their investments either through US support or future oil revenues.
What are Russia’s interests in Venezuela?
Russia’s main interest in Venezuela is to challenge US influence in Latin America. By backing a government that is hostile to Washington, Moscow gains a strategic foothold close to the US.
Russia also values Venezuela as a loyal political ally. Since the early 2000s, Caracas has supported Moscow in major global disputes, including Russia’s conflicts with Georgia, strengthening their long-term partnership.
Another key interest is military and security influence. Russia became Venezuela’s largest arms supplier and has, at times, used military support to signal its power and force the US to take Russia seriously in the region.
What’s next?
What happens next remains unclear. According to the report, the key question is how far Russia will go to defend these tankers that are moving sanctioned oil. It will also be worth watching whether the US will risk a direct confrontation with Russia by stopping or seizing a tanker that is officially flying Moscow’s flag.
