Vehicles bound for shipment parked in front of the Dream Angel vehicles carrier ship at the Nagoya Port in Nagoya, Japan, on Tuesday, June 18, 2024.
Fred Mery | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Japan’s exports growth in the final month of 2025 missed analysts’ estimates, rising 5.1% year on year, as shipments to the U.S. saw a double-digit decline.
Reuters-polled analysts had estimated exports growth would remain unchanged from November at 6.1%.
Japanese exports fell during the middle of 2025, hit by U.S. tariff worries, but saw a rebound toward the end of the year after a trade deal with the U.S. was announced that saw duties slashed to 15%.
Exports to the U.S. in December, however, resumed their decline, dropping 11.1%, after an 8.8% jump in the prior month. The gain in November was the first time exports to the U.S. rose since March.
Shipments to mainland China, Japan’s largest trading partner, climbed 5.6%, while exports to Hong Kong surged 31.1% compared to the same period last year. Exports to the wider Asia region gained 10.2%.
Imports in December rose 5.1% year on year, jumping sharply from the 1.3% rise seen in November, and beating Reuters estimates of a 3.6% rise.
For full-year 2025, Japan’s exports rose 3.1%, a softer rise compared to the 6.2% increase seen in 2024, as shipments to mainland China and the U.S. — Tokyo’s top two trading partners — fell 0.4% and 4.1% respectively.
Exports to Hong Kong and Taiwan climbed 17.8% and 15.1% for the whole year, partially offsetting declines in the U.S. and China.
The rise in overall exports in 2025 was partly due to front-loading of U.S. shipments ahead of tariff hikes, an artificial intelligence boom that’s boosted electronics and machinery shipments, and a weak yen, said Stefan Angrick, head of Japan at Moody’s Analytics.
“Although shipments are holding up for now, the outlook is fraught with risks,” he warned, pointing out that higher U.S. import levies and fierce competition from abroad are weighing on industrial production and export volumes.
Trade threats from China are an added concern, Angrick added.
Relations between Tokyo and Beijing have chilled since November after comments from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested that Japan could intervene militarily if China attempted to seize Taiwan by force.
China had suspended imports of seafood from Japan, and early this year, announcing restrictions on the export of dual-use goods to Japan.
The trade data comes at a time when Japan is bracing for snap elections on Feb. 8 called by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, with its Lower House set to be dissolved Friday.
A victory for Takaichi will allow her to push her fiscal agenda through Japan’s parliament with little opposition, analysts have said. It could also involve keeping the yen weak, as it supports Japan’s exports.
Since the announcement of the elections, Japanese markets have been fueled by the so-called “Takaichi trade,” that has seen stocks mostly rise, and the yen stay weak.