“The rainfall during May 2026 averaged over the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal,” according to the IMD. The weather agency predicted that the rainfall could be 110 per cent of the long period average. In some parts of east, Northeast and east central India rainfall could be below normal in May.
IMD also highlighted that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean are evolving towards warmer than normal El Niño conditions. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) had earlier indicated that the El Niño could set in as early as May-July 2026.