With a spotless 3-0 record – including wins against Pakistan and Zimbabwe carried forward from group C – England are clear favourites to finish among the top two in the group. Their last game, on Friday, is against New Zealand, who have struggled in this tournament, losing comprehensively – by 141 balls to spare against India, and with 197 balls remaining against Pakistan. If England beat New Zealand, they’ll finish on eight points and qualify for the semi-finals.
Of much more interest is the last game of the Super Sixes, between India and Pakistan on Sunday. If England win on Friday, only one out of India or Pakistan will make it to the last four. India are better placed with six points and a net run rate of 3.337, compared to Pakistan’s four and 1.484, but Pakistan can flip it around with a big win on Sunday.
The NRR gulf looks huge, but it isn’t as large as it appears to be: if Pakistan bat first and score 300, they’ll need to win by 85 runs to surpass India; if they bowl first and restrict India to 200, they’ll need to reach the target in around 31.5 overs. If the target is 251, they’ll need to get there in about 33.2 overs.
These are fairly challenging targets, but it’s worth remembering that the last time the two teams played, in the final of the Asia Cup a month ago, Pakistan won by 191 runs.
Can India and Pakistan both qualify? That’s not ruled out yet, but for that to happen, New Zealand will need to beat England. Then, if Pakistan beat India, three teams will finish on six points, with NRR deciding the top two. However, on current form, it looks quite unlikely that England will drop two points against New Zealand.
With Australia already topping the group – and hence certain to play the team that finishes second in group 2 in the semi-finals – there’s only one place up for grabs, and the equation is simple. If Afghanistan win, they will qualify with six points, as a win by any margin will keep their NRR above Sri Lanka‘s -0.113. If they lose and remain on four points, then Sri Lanka will qualify with six. Given that Afghanistan play bottom-of-the-table Ireland, they are huge favourites to win and seal second semi-finals spot in the group.
