T20 World Cup 2025/26, IND vs NZ Final Match Preview

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Big picture: Is GOAT really the GOAT?

Call it beauty, call it cruelty, but this is the reality.

This Indian T20I unit is a GOAT team. They last lost a series or tournament in August 2023. Since the start of the previous T20 World Cup, they have won seven matches for every one they have lost. To the group that won the trophy in 2024 they have added Abhishek Sharma, Tilak Varma, Varun Chakravarthy and loads of intent.

India are so good that they have pivoted twice – first from Shubman Gill to Ishan Kishan just before this tournament began, then to bring back Sanju Samson during the tournament – and the pieces have seamlessly fallen in place.

Yet they won’t be viewed as the GOAT if they don’t win in Ahmedabad on Sunday. We don’t make the rules. This is how cricket works. Anything that involves more than two teams in cricket – even all the “leagues” – are a hybrid of league and knockout.

When you do that in the most fickle format of the sport, where it is the most difficult to establish an association between process and outcome, you can end up having the cagey campaign India have had. They are so good that they only have everything to lose in this tournament.

Kipling’s two impostors are more different for India than any other team. This is not to justify a lack of scientific temperament but there’s been an element of the obsessiveness to India’s journey through the T20 World Cup: regular visits to temples, avoiding training during a lunar eclipse, possible changing of hotels for the final. There aren’t enough controllables in this format, so you start trying to control whatever you can.

On the field, India have still done enough – though not at their absolute best – to make the final. Sanju Samson has found the form of his life, Jasprit Bumrah is still being “played out” even in chases of 254, and Hardik Pandya is the closest you get to two players in one.

Still, India don’t want to be anything less than their best against an opponent whose DNA is to care a lot but play like they don’t care at all. New Zealand don’t have mystery spin, they don’t have a Bumrah-like genie, but they are dangerous because they can treat the two impostors almost the same. In India, November 19 is a day of mourning; for New Zealand, whatever happens on March 8 might not dominate conversation the following week.

Like India, New Zealand have also had to pivot, calling in a 34-year-old mid-tournament, giving him the new ball, having him take out two dangerous left-hand batters and then not have him do anything for the rest of the semi-final. Since 2019, no team has made more ICC semi-finals than New Zealand’s six. Only India have made more finals than their four. Their best players don’t even want their national contracts; they encourage such a healthy workspace, let them play elsewhere most of the time, but put the band together for the big time.

New Zealand will not make the mistakes England’s bowlers made against India in the semi-final. They will have researched every batter and put plans in place, ready to execute. Now India could still be good enough to beat them, but they will not be fed.

Sunday will be tactical, it will be emotional, it will be full of skill and some luck, and by the end of the night, both teams will have to make peace with whatever impostor they draw. That is the reality of the game.

Form guide

India have won every match except for the Super Eight contest against South Africa, after which they won the must-win games against Zimbabwe and West Indies, and then beat England in a high-scoring thriller in the semi-final.

New Zealand only barely made it to the semi-final, losing comprehensively to South Africa in the first round and to England in the Super Eight, but then they thrashed the unbeaten South Africans in the semi-final.

In the spotlight: Jasprit Bumrah and Daryl Mitchell

He didn’t end up as the Player of the Match in either of them, but Jasprit Bumrah repeated in the semi-final the work he did in the final two years ago. England had brought a chase of 254 down to 69 off the last five, but Bumrah bowled two of those overs for just 14 runs. If he can again put in a performance where New Zealand only take what is on offer, India should win.

Daryl Mitchell has had a quiet tournament. He hardly got to bat in the group stage and then had an ordinary Super Eight round on slower pitches in Sri Lanka. Having steered New Zealand to their first ODI series win in India in January, Mitchell will be vital to his team because he has scored at two a ball against Bumrah in internationals, and 10.18 per over overall. If he can impose on Bumrah a normal day at the T20 office, he will have gone a long way to helping New Zealand’s cause.

Team news: Questions over Varun and Neesham

Abhishek will not be touched, but India have a Varun Chakravarthy problem. Eight of his leakiest spells in T20Is have come in the last two and a half months. Current form has higher weightage in T20 cricket than in other formats and Varun’s current form is 11.6 per over and four wickets since the start of the Super Eight round. The three alternatives are Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Siraj and Washington Sundar in that order of likelihood because India won’t want to diminish their striking ability.

India (probable): 1 Abhishek Sharma, 2 Sanju Samson (wk), 3 Ishan Kishan, 4 Tilak Varma, 5 Suryakumar Yadav (capt), 6 Hardik Pandya, 7 Shivam Dube, 8 Axar Patel, 9 Arshdeep Singh, 10 Jasprit Bumrah, 11 Varun Chakravarthy/Kuldeep Yadav/Mohammed Siraj

For New Zealand, the question is more about structure. They made do against South Africa with just three specialist bowlers, and James Neesham carded at No. 9. With the ball, Neesham went for 42 in three overs, and New Zealand were rescued by Rachin Ravindra’s four overs for 29 runs and two wickets, including that of David Miller, who mishit a slot ball and still got caught only just inside the boundary. You won’t always have such luck. Can New Zealand afford to play with the same structure against India? Jacob Duffy is a choice. Ish Sodhi might not be because the pitch in Ahmedabad is more suited to hit-the-deck bowlers than spinners.

New Zealand (probable): 1 Tim Seifert (wk), 2 Finn Allen, 3 Rachin Ravindra, 4 Glenn Phillips, 5 Mark Chapman, 6 Daryl Mitchell, 7 Mitchell Santner (capt), 8 Cole McConchie, 9 Jimmy Neesham/Jacob Duffy, 10 Matt Henry, 11 Lockie Ferguson

Pitch and conditions

The middle pitch on the square has been earmarked for the final, as it was for the IPL final last year but not for the 2023 ODI World Cup. Since 2024, this particular surface, a mix of red and black soil, is 5-3 in favour of the chasing side. In the IPL final last year, Royal Challengers Bengaluru successfully defended 190. Before that, Punjab Kings won batting first but only by 11 runs after scoring 243. The other successful defence was for South Africa against Canada in this World Cup. South Africa’s easy chase against West Indies on this same surface – even though in an evening match – should tell you the pitch is full of runs. India said they wanted to bat first in Mumbai anyway, but that might not be the case should they win the toss, even keeping in mind their failed chase of 188 against South Africa earlier in the tournament, which was on a different pitch in the same ground.

Stats and trivia

Since 2019, New Zealand are 2-2 against India in ICC tournament knockouts. They won the 2019 ODI World Cup semi-final and the World Test Championship final in 2021, but lost the ODI World Cup semi-final in 2023 and the Champions Trophy final last year. The 2000 Champions Trophy final win in Nairobi gives New Zealand the tiebreaker.
India’s win against England in the semi-final was the first time since 2014 that a total was defended successfully in a T20 World Cup knockout match held at night.
New Zealand haven’t won a limited-overs World Cup in either format, losing finals as recently as 2019 (ODI) and 2021 (T20I).
Rachin has taken 11 wickets in this tournament. Only Trent Boult has taken more – 13 – for New Zealand in a World Cup.
Varun has taken at least one wicket in his last 21 T20Is. Only Wanindu Hasaranga, Adil Rashid and Sandeep Lamichhane have had longer streaks.

Quotes

“Sanju’s inclusion was important because in the last bilateral series before the T20 World Cup, we saw the top three of Abhishek, Sanju and Ishan Kishan, and how much it was helping, and when we included him [in this World Cup], things changed all of a sudden.”
India captain Suryakumar Yadav

“I wouldn’t mind breaking a few hearts to lift the trophy for once.”
New Zealand captain Mitchell Santner

Sidharth Monga is a senior writer at ESPNcricinfo

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Big picture: Is GOAT really the GOAT?

Form guide

In the spotlight: Jasprit Bumrah and Daryl Mitchell

Team news: Questions over Varun and Neesham

Pitch and conditions

Stats and trivia

Quotes

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