Big Picture: Can England stop the wheels falling off?
While some might say the point has already been reached at 3-0 down, there is a sense this tour could descend into chaos for England with the Ashes gone. The build-up to the Boxing Day Test has become dominated by continued fallout from their mid-series trip to Noosa, firstly with director of cricket Rob Key saying claims of too much drinking would be investigated and then, a few hours later, video emerging of Ben Duckett late at night.
Captain Ben Stokes looked emotional when speaking to the media on Christmas Eve, saying that he will do everything in his power to protect his players. He insisted there was still the belief that they could take something from this tour, but stopped short of echoing Zak Crawley’s comments that 3-2 wouldn’t be such a bad scoreline.
If England can play as they did for the latter half of the Adelaide Test they may stand a chance against an Australia side that won’t be at full strength, although that was also the case in the first two Tests and still, to a lesser extent, last week given Josh Hazlewood hasn’t featured at all. Having not really answered a question about where this Australia side compares to others he’s faced when asked after Adelaide, ahead of the fourth Test, Stokes said: “I hope it doesn’t get lost, but this Australian team is very, very good.”
Pat Cummins declared it “job done” after Adelaide with the Ashes retained, but while the major prize is secured, their drive is now for a whitewash and important World Test Championship points. In 2021-22 they were denied the 5-0 when England survived nine down at the SCG while in 2017-18 it was Alastair Cook’s double ton on a featherbed MCG surface that forced the stalemate. This team is looking to emulate 2006-07 and 2013-14 in sending England home with absolutely nothing.
However, for Cummins himself, it is mission accomplished: he won’t feature in the remainder of the series with the decision made that there is no value in risking long-term damage to his back, after a remarkable comeback to bowl brilliantly in Adelaide after five months with no cricket.
As in Brisbane, Australia will be without three of the big four but this time Nathan Lyon has been sidelined by injury rather than selection. Although Lyon will do all he can to return, it is a glimpse into the future for Australia especially if Todd Murphy gets the nod rather than an all-pace attack on a well-grassed surface. With Jhye Richardson also part of the squad for the first time in a year, there is a sense of the next generation getting closer to their moment.
In terms of Australia’s Test side post-Ashes, the most intriguing decision will be around Usman Khawaja who scored 82 and 40 in Adelaide after a last-minute recall to replace the ill Steven Smith. The outcome could determine whether Khawaja’s career now plays out on his terms. Australia will make more changes than England, but their adaptability and pragmatism has been a hallmark of this series.
Form guide
Australia WWWWW(last five completed Tests, most recent first)
England LLLLD
In the spotlight: Jake Weatherald and Jacob Bethell
Largely by accident, Australia have stumbled across a new opening pair. Jake Weatherald and Travis Head have had two significant impacts together in the second innings in Perth and first in Brisbane. Weatherald played superbly at the Gabba for his tone-setting 72, but away from that the returns have been a little lean although he would have saved himself with the DRS in the second innings in Adelaide. The selectors will be desperate to stop the revolving door but Weatherald probably needs one more substantial score in this series to avoid months of speculation before Australia play Tests again in August.
Is Jacob Bethell, who has yet to score a first-class century, really the next big thing in English batting? After pre-series talk that he may challenge Ollie Pope for the No. 3 spot the change has come with the Ashes gone after Pope’s increasingly underwhelming series to continue a year of diminishing returns. Bethell averages 28.27 in 26 first-class with his high score of 96 coming in a Test against New Zealand. He scored half-centuries in all three second innings of that series in 2024. His left-arm spin will provide another option for Ben Stokes alongside Will Jacks.
Team news: Australia delve into their depth, Pope dropped
There are various combinations Australia could try. The first decision is whether to replace Nathan Lyon like-for-like with Todd Murphy or go with an all-pace attack that would open the door for Jhye Richardson. They also need to replace Pat Cummins which could earn Michael Neser a first red-ball Test or Brendan Doggett another opportunity. It appears unlikely Richardson would be considered as one of three frontline quicks at this stage of his comeback.
Meanwhile, Cameron Green is coming under pressure and could be replaced by Beau Webster who offers some offspin among his all-round skillset. At very least, if Usman Khawaja is retained in the middle order Green would likely have to shuffle down to No. 7 with Andrew McDonald endorsing Alex Carey at No. 6. Khawaja wasn’t in Australia’s first-choice XI before Smith’s illness in Adelaide – does that remain the case?
Australia (possible): 1 Jake Weatherald, 2 Travis Head, 3 Marnus Labuschagne, 4 Steven Smith (capt), 5 Usman Khawaja, 6 Alex Carey (wk), 7 Cameron Green/Beau Webster, 8 Michael Neser, 9 Mitchell Starc, 10 Todd Murphy, 11 Scott Boland
England have backed Ben Duckett amid the controversy of the last 24 hours but Ollie Pope has finally paid the price for his underwhelming returns with Jacob Bethell recalled to bat at No. 3. Jofra Archer has been ruled out of the tour with a side strain so Gus Atkinson returns to the pace attack. There remains no space for specialist spinner Shoaib Bashir.
England 1 Zak Crawley, 2 Ben Duckett, 3 Jacob Bethell, 4 Joe Root, 5 Harry Brook, 6 Ben Stokes (capt), 7 Jamie Smith (wk), 8 Will Jacks, 9 Gus Atkinson, 10 Brydon Carse, 11 Josh Tongue
Pitch and conditions: Hoping for the perfect balance
Matt Page, the MCG curator, said he was hoping to replicate the surface which produced the gripping Test against India last season that finished deep on day five. On that occasion he left 7mm of grass with the surface offering something for everyone following a few years of it being very bowler-dominated. There will be a range of temperatures during the game: Boxing Day is set to be cool with things warming up to the low 30s later in the match. There is a chance of a shower on the first and last days.
“Pumped to be back at the ‘G. I think, for me, getting towards the back end of my career, anytime I can play at the ‘G, and play the home Test is pretty special. So I’m really looking forward to the next week.”
Scott Boland
“We still have a hell of a lot to play for. I’m very determined to leave Australia with something positive to look back on.”
Ben Stokes
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