The U.S. economy is expected to remain resilient into 2026, supported primarily by steady consumer spending, fiscal policy support and easing monetary conditions, according to recent economic analysis. While artificial intelligence investment will continue to play a role, economists say it is not the single force sustaining growth.
Prajakta Bhide, U.S. economic strategist at MRB Partners, said household consumption should remain a key pillar of expansion even as income growth slows and wealth becomes more concentrated. “The U.S. consumer’s still, in our view, in good shape,” Bhide told CNBC, citing fiscal support as an offset to softer aggregate income growth. She also rejected the view that consumption strength depends solely on high earners, adding, “I don’t think the hollowing out of consumption is that much of a cyclical risk.”
Bhide expects additional support from Federal Reserve rate cuts, continued investment in AI and a stabilizing labor market helped by a sharp drop in immigration. She said productivity data and job creation trends will be critical indicators to watch this year.
Economic data from 2025 show a mixed but generally solid picture. Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% in the third quarter and 3.3% in the second quarter, both exceeding expectations. Growth contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, marking the first quarterly decline since early 2022. Final annual GDP figures are still pending, with revisions due later.
Despite strong headline growth during a period of heavy AI spending, analysts caution against overstating the technology’s role. A January report from MRB Partners found that consumption, not AI investment, was the largest contributor to GDP growth last year. AI-related capital spending ranked second.
“AI is an important part of the growth story, but it’s not the only part of the growth story,” Bhide said. “Still, it’s the U.S. consumer that continues to drive the expansion.”
Her research shows that AI-related investments appeared to add about 0.9% to real GDP growth between the first and third quarters of 2025 when imports were excluded. After adjusting for imported equipment such as semiconductors and computers, the net contribution fell to roughly 40 to 50 basis points, or about one-fifth to one-quarter of total growth.
Other analysts reached similar conclusions. Bespoke Investment Group said AI-linked spending accounted for only 15% of quarterly GDP growth in mid-2025, with less than 5% of total GDP tied to those categories.
The findings challenge the popular narrative that artificial intelligence alone kept the U.S. economy afloat, highlighting instead the enduring strength of consumer demand.
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