Some may see it as creating a new era of international competition in the Horn of Africa – but the real issue is it may appear more of a strategic chessboard than it is.
In the wake of Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, there has been a lot of discussion about why the recognition is taking place now and to what end.
Somaliland is situated in the Horn of Africa. It has neighbors such as Ethiopia and Djibouti.
The recognition is raising eyebrows more for what is nearby across the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea. These two bodies of water are separated by the Bab al-Manded straits. This is an economic choke point for shipping heading from the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean. As such this is seen as a vital important zone of trade for the world.
The Iranian-backed Houthis have terrorized shipping over the last several years in this area. They claimed to do so due to the war in Gaza. Decades ago there were also Somali pirates attacking ships off the coast of East Africa.
This area is now in the spotlight amid Israel’s recognition of Somaliland.
Houthi military helicopter flies over the Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the Red Sea in this photo released November 20, 2023. (credit: Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS)
A new era of international competition in the Horn of Africa
Some may see it as creating a new era of international competition in this part of Africa. Many countries are already involved. Turkey has been involved in Somalia and also Sudan. The UAE invested in a port in Somaliland. European powers have bases and forces in Djibouti.
However, many of the states here are weak or have internal conflicts. Sudan has been involved civil war for years. Somalia largely fell apart as a country in the early 1990s, forcing international intervention that peaked with the Black Hawk Down battle where US forces were killed. Eritrea has long been a suffering and poor country. Ethiopia has also had internal conflicts.
Across the water in Yemen the country has also been in civil war for years. Saudi Arabia and the UAE intervened in Yemen in 2015 to prevent the Houthis taking control of Aden. Yemen anyway has been divided for much of the last century as North and South Yemen. Egypt intervened in the 1960s today Yemen is divided again with the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council and Saudi-backed Yemen government.
Many commentators see Israel’s move as strategic. It ostensibly puts Israel and the UAE on one side sharing interests in this region. On the other are states such as Turkey. However nothing is simple. Saudi and UAE done agree on Yemen. Egypt likely doesn’t like changes in the Horn of Africa and already has deep concerns about the increased advance of the RSF in Sudan; and also a new dam in Egypt. Qatar and many countries oppose Israel’s move.
There’s a good reason the Horn of Africa is weak
The real issues in the Horn of Africa may appear more of a strategic chessboard than they are. While it’s true that having naval forces in this area or military assets seems like important, the Houthi attacks on ships have shown that with relatively simple and cheap drones and missiles, shipping can be terrorized.
The Somali pirates used to hijack boats with skiffs and an outboard motor and AKs. The region of the Horn of Africa is poor in resources and there is a good reason that many of the countries here are weak states.
As such, the Israeli recognition may be less than the sum of the parts of this region in terms of grand strategy. It’s true that many countries have interests here, from France to the US; Turkey and Iran; the UAE and Saudi.
However, these interests have so far translated into only limited engagement. There are bigger fish to fry and most countries know this.