One of the most intriguing matchups in college football history will take place Monday night at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami as the hometown Hurricanes face the Indiana Hoosiers for the national championship (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+).
Indiana, led by coach Curt Cignetti and Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, are an undefeated 15-0 this season and looking to win the program’s first title. It’s one of the biggest turnarounds in college football, as the Hoosiers entered this season with the most total losses in the sport.
Miami (13-2), meanwhile, is a five-time champion that was previously a powerhouse. But the Hurricanes’ last title came in 2001, and until recently they have fielded teams that have failed to meet expectations.
Who will come out on top Monday night? NBC News’ Rohan Nadkarni, Andrew Greif and Tim Rohan, along with NBC Sports’ Nicole Auerbach and Joshua Perry, break it down from every angle.
Besides Fernando Mendoza and Carson Beck, which player are you most excited to watch?
Greif: Tie! The Hoosiers’ receiving tandem of Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr., because if either can get open, it will tilt the game in Indiana’s favor. Neither’s production, as gauged by pure receiving yards, stands out. But they show up when it matters most. Sarratt’s 15 receiving touchdowns lead the country, while Cooper’s 13 rank third. Mendoza clearly looks for both in the red zone and for big plays.
Auerbach: Mark Fletcher Jr., Miami’s star running back, has carried this offense through the College Football Playoff, as he’s totaled nearly 400 rushing yards over the past three games. He’s the key to me for the Hurricanes to have a chance to win this game, because not only is it important for their offensive line to set the tone/bully the Indiana defensive front, it’s critical that the run game eats clock and helps Miami sustain long drives. Indiana is very good at that, and Miami will need to match it.
A reliable rushing attack will also help set quarterback Carson Beck up for success. He’ll have to take some shots down the field in this game, and everyone knows a quarterback’s best friend is a great run game. If the Hoosiers force the Canes to be one-dimensional, it’s going to be a long night for Beck and Co.
Perry: For Indiana, there are so many impact players that come to mind. Stephen Dailey was one of the most productive defensive linemen in the country this season before his injury. Aiden Fisher is a tackle machine whose leadership you can feel when you watch him play, and DeAngelo Ponds is a lockdown corner that can change the game.
However, Indiana linebacker Isaiah Jones always shows up. He plays behind the line of scrimmage, and his sack and tackles for loss numbers prove that. He’s a great blitzer and he finishes plays at the point of attack. Against a Miami team that has run the ball well this postseason, I think he could be the difference for the defense.
On the Miami side, I’ll take a different approach. It’s not just one player, but a group. The Hurricanes’ offensive line has to own the line of scrimmage, so my eyes will be on them. They’ve been great this postseason, and their ability to pick up Indiana’s stunts and blitzes will have a direct impact on their ability to win the game.
Now, these guys are big! Left tackle Markel Bell is 6-foot-9 and 340 pounds with light feel and long arms. He’s kept pressure off of Beck all season. Their right tackle, Francis Mauigoa, is a 6-foot-6, 315-pound projected first-round pick. Oh, and their head coach, Mario Cristobal, is a former offensive lineman and offensive line coach.
The guys in the trenches tend to be an afterthought, but Miami knows that the team goes as the offensive line goes.
Nadkarni: Rueben Bain Jr. is the type of defensive player who can swing the game in Miami’s favor. After racking up four sacks in the Hurricanes’ first two playoff games, Bain tallied several pressures in the win over Ole Miss. That is exactly the kind of effort that will be needed if Miami is going to pull off an upset Monday night.
The Hurricanes’ strength all year has been their play in the trenches on both sides of the ball, with Bain playing a major role in terrorizing opposing offenses. If he can create an extra possession for the offense with a strip sack or make Mendoza even the slightest bit uncomfortable in the pocket, that is a major win for Miami.
Rohan: Pat Coogan. Yes, Indiana center Pat Coogan. Rose Bowl Offensive MVP Pat Coogan. I’m sure others will pick a wide receiver or running back, but Coogan and his fellow Hoosier offensive linemen figure to be the key to the game. Can they keep Miami’s elite defensive line in check and allow Mendoza time to work?
Miami’s defensive front is uber talented, led by Bain and Akheem Mesidor. The Hurricanes’ front seven stifled No. 2 Ohio State a few weeks ago, when Miami sacked quarterback Julian Sayin five times and intercepted him twice. The Hurricanes’ pass rush could pose real problems for the Indiana offense, unless Coogan and the rest of the Hoosiers’ line can neutralize it.
More impactful for college football: Indiana winning the national title after years of losing or Miami returning to glory?
Auerbach: Indiana. This is the same program that started the season with more losses than anyone else in the history of college football! I love both teams’ trajectories and paths to get to this point, but there’s no comparison in the history of college sports for what the Hoosiers are trying to do in a sport in which they’ve basically never had success.
For so, so long, college football was dominated by blue bloods; it was set up in a way that was largely designed to keep Davids far away from Goliath, at least when it came to determining champions. There was never really a path for a team like Indiana to do this. There was never a path for a team like Indiana to attract enough talent to compete with the sport’s elite teams. Now there is, thanks to NIL/revenue sharing and transfer rules that allow players to have immediate eligibility.
Other teams have flipped rosters quickly and seen their win total increase year over year, but Indiana is doing this so much better and so much faster than everyone else. It’s truly the dawn of a new era. I really think an Indiana national title would be a seen as a clear dividing line between college football’s past and its new world order.
Perry: The reality is that either team winning would have a big impact on the sport. Let’s look back at the last couple of years. The ACC has had a bit of an existential crisis. After the most recent round of conference realignment, there were questions about top ACC schools being poached. There were questions about a TV contract that is way short of the Big Ten and SEC. There were questions about revenue distributions, and the ACC restructured how it distributes money to the top schools to keep them happy. And on top of all of that, there was a growing sentiment that the ACC, along with the Big 12, was on a rung below the Big Ten and the SEC in terms of their ability to win a championship in football.
So, an ACC team winning the title feels big. But for it to be Miami feels monumental. It’s a storied program that was once the pinnacle of the sport. Everything about “The U” was cool! It was one of the teams that made me fall in love with college football. Seeing them back on top would restore one of the titans of the sport to prominence.
Nadkarni: Indiana winning the national championship would be a great counterpunch to the idea college sports are in a bad place. Yes, much-needed guardrails need to be added to the current structure regardless of the outcome Monday night. At the same time, the idea that college football specifically has become a lawless jungle that only benefits the wealthy would be turned on its head if the Hoosiers pull off an undefeated season and take down storied program after storied program.
Indiana is proof coaching matters. It is proof the transfer portal can benefit schools other than blue bloods. Every team had a chance to hire Cignetti or recruit these players. Heck, Mendoza grew up a Hurricanes fan in Miami and the school ultimately passed on him multiple times. There’s a lot of work to be done in college football, but an Indiana win would prove the playing field is more level than many believe.
Rohan: Indiana, by far. If the Hoosiers are victorious and complete their Cinderella run, it’s a win for the underdog. It gives every mid-major program hope that they can find their own Cignetti, pluck their own Mendoza, and rise to the top of the sport. If Indiana loses, people won’t forget this team — but will these past few years feel the same? As Indiana linebacker Aiden Fisher said recently, “We know it won’t mean anything unless we walk away with a win in this game.”
Greif: It has to be Indiana coming out of nowhere to do this, right? Of all big-time sports in the United States, college football employs the most caste-like system, where success, money and power has traditionally, and almost without exception, been wielded by the biggest, most tradition-rich football programs and everybody else fights for scraps. As a longtime loser, where basketball was more of a priority than football, Indiana’s rise defies decades of precedent. And if Indiana can do it, you had better believe there will be a ripple effect of optimism among other have-not universities wondering why they can’t, too.
National championship pick
Perry: Indiana 24, Miami 14.
I think this is going to be a close matchup. These are two teams that are built well on both lines of scrimmage. Each team has an experienced quarterback. They are both violent and aggressive. They can create havoc on defense. Truly, they mirror each other in many facets.
But the difference to me comes down to consistency. I just trust that Indiana will be what its been all year. A team that plays with elite discipline. A team that doesn’t make mental errors. A team that doesn’t commit penalties. And a team that doesn’t ride the emotions of the game.
Miami has been its best version this postseason. Even still, it’s hard to ignore its midseason inconsistencies. Penalties can creep up like they did in its semifinal matchup with Ole Miss. Against a team like Indiana, whose superpower is discipline, Miami is harder to trust. So give me the Hoosiers to secure the Big Ten’s third straight title.
Nadkarni: Indiana 38, Miami 24.
It’s hard to go against the Hoosiers, who have only gotten better as the year has gone along. Indiana smacked up Alabama and followed up that performance by smashing an Oregon team it had already beaten this year. Like Miami, the Hoosiers are strong in the trenches. And unlike the Hurricanes, Indiana has an incredibly dynamic player at quarterback who can single-handedly win games. I expect Mendoza to be the difference-maker on a night the Hoosiers don’t feel especially threatened.
Rohan: Indiana 31, Miami 14.
In the College Football Playoff, Indiana has steamrolled two blue-blood powerhouse programs, Alabama and Oregon, winning by a combined margin of 94-25. The Hoosiers are talented, they’re well-coached, and they won’t wilt on the big stage. Miami’s defense keeps it somewhat close, but Indiana pulls away late.
Greif: Indiana 35, Miami 21.
I don’t believe Indiana is infallible. And if I’m the Hoosiers, I worry most about how Miami’s offensive and defensive lines could take over the game. And yet, I stand here as someone abiding by a simple rule: Until proven otherwise, I simply don’t doubt Indiana’s Cignetti. He’s authored the most stunning turnaround in college football history to this point, and that should make me, or anyone, wary to pick against them.
Auerbach: Indiana 37, Miami 17.
I picked the Hoosiers to win it all six weeks ago when the bracket came out. I’m sticking with this team because it has no weaknesses. Mendoza, the Heisman Trophy winner, is highly efficient in the pass game. The Hoosiers have a two-headed monster in the run game. They stop the run well and they defend the pass well. They rarely get penalized, and they rarely turn the ball over. They don’t beat themselves, which means I think Miami will have to be basically perfect to win this game.
The Canes are coming off a game in which they were whistled for 10 penalties (and they dropped four interceptions). They have to play a clean game to have a chance, and still that may not be enough.
Indiana may not be the most talented team in college football, but it’s the best team in the country. And I think the Hoosiers will hoist that trophy on Monday night.